The NFL season is still young, but Week 3 delivered everything fans and bettors could ask for: thrilling games, heartbreaking losses, and a few unexpected twists that reminded everyone just how unpredictable football can be. Chaos reigned, as expected, though not always in the ways we predicted. A blocked field goal returned for a touchdown flipped what should have been an easy Los Angeles Rams cover into a gut-wrenching loss, and the Tennessee Titans failed to deliver as underdogs. Still, player props and touchdown scorer bets provided redemption, with a clean sweep on props and both Nico Collins and George Pickens finding the end zone.
That leaves us with the following Week 3 record:
- Against the Spread (ATS): 2-3
- Player Props: 2-0
- Touchdown Scorers: 2-1
Not a perfect week, but a profitable one in the right areas. Now, as Week 4 kicks off, it’s time to regroup and find value in a slate that offers plenty of betting intrigue. Instead of chasing “too easy” plays on favorites like the Chargers, Texans, and Packers, this week’s focus is on matchups where teams are undervalued or set up in favorable spots.
Below, we break down five of the best bets for Week 4, highlight some player prop opportunities, and close with anytime touchdown picks that could offer big returns.
Best Bets for Week 4
Rams -3.5 vs. Colts
The Rams may have burned bettors last week, but this is the perfect bounce-back spot. The Colts are enjoying early-season hype and have been one of the league’s surprise stories. However, the Rams have shown they can smother opposing run games, holding Saquon Barkley under three yards per carry. If they do the same against Jonathan Taylor, the Colts will be forced into a one-dimensional passing attack, which plays right into Los Angeles’ hands.
The Rams’ offensive balance and ability to score in bunches make them a strong play to win comfortably at home. Don’t be surprised if this one ends up a double-digit victory for L.A.
Lions -10 vs. Browns
Laying double digits is always risky in the NFL, but this is a matchup where Detroit’s firepower could overwhelm Cleveland. The Browns looked spirited last week, pulling off a shocking upset against Green Bay, but the Lions are built differently. Jared Goff and his weapons have been electric over the past two games, and their offensive versatility allows them to dictate tempo.
The Browns’ quarterback situation is shaky, with Joe Flacco and Dillon Gabriel unlikely to spark a road comeback. Detroit knows Cleveland gave them a gift by knocking off Green Bay, and the Lions will be motivated to capitalize. This could get ugly quickly.
Falcons +1 vs. Commanders
Talk about overreaction. Atlanta was embarrassed in Week 3, but this line suggests the market is forgetting how strong their defense looked the week before. The Falcons are back home in a dome, which should help Michael Penix Jr. and the offense find their rhythm again.
Meanwhile, Washington enters banged up and possibly without Terry McLaurin, Jayden Daniels, and key defensive contributors. If Daniels sits, Marcus Mariota takes over, and while he’s serviceable, he doesn’t offer the same ceiling. Atlanta should be favored here, and bettors may want to jump before the line moves in that direction.
Raiders ML (-113) vs. Bears
The Chicago Bears’ dismantling of Dallas was more about the Cowboys’ defensive ineptitude than the Bears’ brilliance. Las Vegas is far from elite defensively, but they should be able to pressure Caleb Williams and prevent Chicago’s gadget plays from working as easily as they did last week.
If the Raiders establish rhythm early by attacking Chicago’s weakened secondary, they can control the game on the ground in the second half. Expect them to lean on Ashton Jeanty while forcing Williams into high-volume passing situations that could result in turnovers. At nearly even money, the Raiders are worth backing.
Chiefs +2.5 vs. Ravens
It’s rare to see Patrick Mahomes as a home underdog, and that makes this play all the more tempting. The Ravens’ defensive line has been battered, and the Lions just gashed them for big yardage. Kansas City should be able to exploit those weaknesses, especially with rookie speedster Xavier Worthy expected to return.
Worthy’s presence reshuffles the Chiefs’ offense, allowing Tyquan Thornton to slide into a complementary role and freeing up space for Travis Kelce underneath. With Mahomes motivated to avoid a disastrous 1-3 start, Arrowhead should be rocking. Don’t be surprised if Kansas City wins this outright.
Player Props to Watch
Props have been a sweet spot so far this season, and Week 4 offers more juicy opportunities. Here are three standout plays:
- Omarion Hampton Over 65.5 Rushing Yards
With Najee Harris out, Hampton’s workload spiked last week, and he should see a heavy dose of touches against a Giants defense that struggles against gap-blocking runs. Expect him to push well past this total. - TreVeyon Henderson Over 65.5 Rush + Receiving Yards
The Patriots are turning to Henderson after Rhamondre Stevenson’s struggles, and he gets a soft matchup against Carolina. This could be his breakout “feature back” performance. - Puka Nakua Over 7.5 Receptions
Nakua’s volume is absurd, with double-digit targets in two of three games. Whether the Rams are leading or trailing, Matthew Stafford looks his way constantly. This feels like a safe over.
Anytime Touchdown Scorer Picks
Touchdown scorer bets always carry risk, but they can also deliver massive value. Here are a couple worth circling:
- Ray Davis (+330) – With Buffalo projected to dominate the Saints, Davis should see plenty of second-half carries. At more than 3-to-1 odds, he’s a great value play to find the end zone.
- George Pickens (Earlier Win Reminder) – His Week 3 touchdown cashed, and with the Steelers’ offense leaning on him as a deep threat, he remains a strong option going forward.
Teams to Be Wary Of
Not every line is worth betting, no matter how tempting it looks. The Chargers, Texans, and Packers all appear like easy plays this week, but that’s exactly why they’re dangerous. These are teams that can collapse in unexpected ways, and with lines that look too good to be true, bettors may want to steer clear.
Frequently Asked Questions:
What are the best bets for NFL Week 4?
The top bets include Rams -3.5 vs. Colts, Lions -10 vs. Browns, Falcons +1 vs. Commanders, Raiders ML vs. Bears, and Chiefs +2.5 vs. Ravens.
Which underdog is worth backing in Week 4?
The Atlanta Falcons stand out as undervalued underdogs, especially at home against a depleted Washington Commanders squad.
Who are the best player prop targets this week?
Key prop plays include Omarion Hampton Over 65.5 rushing yards, TreVeyon Henderson Over 65.5 total yards, and Puka Nakua Over 7.5 receptions.
What are strong anytime touchdown picks for Week 4?
Ray Davis (+330) offers great value for Buffalo, while George Pickens continues to be a reliable red-zone option.
Which games should bettors avoid this week?
Despite looking tempting, the Chargers, Texans, and Packers are risky plays due to inconsistent performances and unpredictable outcomes.
Is it smart to back Patrick Mahomes as a home underdog?
Yes. History shows Mahomes rarely loses as a home underdog, making Chiefs +2.5 vs. Ravens one of the most appealing bets of the week.
What’s the safest betting strategy for NFL Week 4?
Focus on value spots like the Rams and Lions, mix in carefully selected props, and avoid chasing risky “too easy” lines.
Conclusion
NFL Week 4 brings plenty of excitement for fans and bettors alike, with several matchups offering strong betting value, bold underdog opportunities, and high-upside player props. The Rams and Lions look ready to dominate, the Falcons and Raiders present sneaky underdog appeal, and Patrick Mahomes as a home underdog remains one of the most intriguing storylines of the week. Add in reliable prop plays like Omarion Hampton, TreVeyon Henderson, and Puka Nakua, plus touchdown scorer value from Ray Davis, and the slate is packed with profitable angles.